The Middle East conflict is increasingly looking like a war that nobody can win. The US and Israel have the military advantage, but Iran's strategy of outlasting its adversaries and complicating their objectives has given it the upper hand.
Iran's definition of victory is survival, and it has shown a willingness to retaliate across the region, making escalation a costly and complex proposition.
The US and Israel are not fully aligned in their end goals, with Israel pushing for a deeper weakening of Iran's system and the US oscillating between coercion, containment, and negotiation.
The conflict has stalled, with repeated extensions of ceasefires reflecting constraint rather than progress. Time is not neutral, and the longer the conflict drags on, the greater the cumulative strain on the global economy.
The US and Israel can continue to manage the conflict, contain its spread, and shape its margins, but that is not victory. It is endurance. The real danger is not defeat, but the persistence of a belief that just a little more pressure or time will produce a different result.
