Donald Trump's efforts to secure a new agreement with Iran are being judged against the 2015 nuclear deal negotiated by former US president Barack Obama. Trump, at the time, famously denounced the pact as “the worst deal ever”. Negotiations continue, with the emerging framework bearing similarities to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This raises questions about whether Trump can present any eventual agreement as a significant improvement on the deal he withdrew from in 2018.
While details of a draft memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Tehran remain under negotiation, reports indicate it could include a further 60-day ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a roadmap for renewed talks on Iran’s nuclear programme. Washington is reportedly seeking a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment and guarantees that Iran will never pursue a nuclear weapon.
Any agreement that resembles the JCPOA could prove politically difficult for Trump, whose withdrawal from the accord was a major foreign policy move of his first term. The proposed agreement seems to be heavily influenced by the earlier accord, with several elements resembling provisions contained in the JCPOA.
Opposition to a potential agreement is also emerging within Trump’s Republican party, with Senator Ted Cruz saying he was “deeply concerned” about reports of the negotiations. Regional ambitions face obstacles, with Trump's proposal to link negotiations with Iran to an expansion of the Abraham Accords receiving little enthusiasm from regional leaders.
