US and Iran are preparing for a political exit from the 40-day war as American appetite for a long-drawn war diminishes due to domestic economic factors. Despite failed talks in Islamabad, Iran has signed the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty and given a written assurance not to develop a nuclear weapon. The war has left Iran's nuclear sites in ruins, and it will take time to enrich uranium to weapons grade. Iran has also not retaliated to the blockading of the Straits of Hormuz, which will further hit its economy. Both sides are preparing for an off-ramp from the war, and Pakistan is set to play the peacemaker, using its collected IOUs to cash in with Trump, China, and Sunni Gulf countries.
The US will claim victory as it has bombed the Iranian nuclear program, destroyed its armed forces, and neutralized its top leadership. Pakistan, which supplied nuclear centrifuges to Iran, will use the peace talks to enhance its reputation with Gulf countries and acquire more military capability against India. The US and India are on the same page regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions and the Straits of Hormuz. A long-term commitment from Iran to stay away from nuclear weapons is likely, but peace in the region will remain fragile with sporadic missile exchanges and covert attacks possible.
