Team Vijay vs Dravidians: How the math stacks up in Tamil Nadu floor test today | India News

A historic feat, star-style oath, and some first big decisions later, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam supremo and Tamil Nadu chief minister C Joseph Vijay is all set to face a trust vote in the state legislative assembly on Wednesday.Vijay's TVK bagged a staggering 108 seats in its first very electoral battle. However, the party fell short of a majority, with the magic number of Tamil Nadu assembly being 118 seats. Follow live updates on Vijay's floor test in Tamil Nadu assemblyAfter a series of meetings with governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar and a hectic struggle to prove a majority, the actor-turned-politician took oath as the chief minister of Tamil Nadu on Sunday.Vijay's own number is 105, not 108. How?While the TVK won 108 seats in the assembly elections, the actual number for Vijay in the House is 105. This is because of three main reasons:Vijay contested the elections from two seats -- Perambur and Trichy East (Tiruchirappalli East) and won them both. However, as per the rules, he had to resign from one seat, which would later be up for bypolls. The TVK chief retained Perambur and resigned from Trichy East, taking the tally down to 107.TVK legislator and veteran politician JCD Prabhar was unanimously elected as the Tamil Nadu assembly Speaker on Tuesday, which means that he cannot participate in the trust vote or the confidence motion against party chief Vijay. With this, TVK's tally comes down to 106.Vijay's count went further down when the Madras High Court issued an interim order and restrained TVK MLA Seenivasa Sethupathy from participating in the state assembly, and the floor test and confidence motion on May 13. The order was passed following a dispute over a postal ballot from the Tiruppattur assembly constituency. Sethupathy won the seat by just one vote. Immediately after the HC order, the TVK MLA moved the Supreme Court, which has agreed to list his matter for hearing on Wednesday, May 13. Despite the apex court's listing, Sethupathy would not be able to vote in the floor test, taking Vijay's own tally down by another count to 105.The majority mark is 118. But, with a TVK legislator becoming the assembly Speaker, Vijay would need 117 votes to win the floor test.Backing for VijayAs Vijay scrambled to gather support and prove a majority before governor Arlekar, the Indian National Congress stood first in line and offered to back the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, snapping ties with the MK Stalin-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK).At the time, Vijay's effective strength was at 107, and with the Congress, which won five seats in the assembly polls, the tally went up to 112. Now he needed at least seven more seats.The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), the Communist Party of India (CPI), CPI (Marxist), and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), all with two seats each, ended up snapping away from the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) and joined hands with Vijay's TVK. The tally (107+5+2+2+2+2) now was at 120, crossing the majority mark of 118 seats.ALSO READ | CM Vijay visits rebel AIADMK MLAs as large faction backs his governmentAmong all these parties, VCK was the last one to come around. VCK chief Thol Thirumavalavan clarified that his party took the decision to prevent President's Rule in Tamil Nadu, and to respect the people's mandate in favour of TVK.VCK further clarified that it would continue to be part of the DMK-led SPA, insisting that its ties with MK Stalin's party would remain not be affected by his decision.Once the TVK chief proved his numbers, governor Arlekar invited Vijay to form the government, and the very next day, 'Thalapathy' Vijay also became Tamil Nadu CM Vijay.AIADMK rift, then a support for TVKThe All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), which has been the ruling party in Tamil Nadu during several regimes, bagged just 47 seats in the assembly elections.There were even reports suggesting that the AIADMK could join hands with its permanent rival, the DMK, to form an alliance government in Tamil Nadu against the backdrop of Vijay's struggle to stack up numbers. However, the speculation didn't actually come to fruition.Once Vijay took the CM chair, cracks reportedly emerged within the AIADMK, as leaders were allegedly unhappy with the party's general secretary, Edappadi K Palaniswami.Just a day before the trust vote, Vijay got the support of AIADMK, well, a massive part of it.ALSO READ | Amid split, both factions claim to be real AIADMK in Tamil NaduAIADMK leader CV Shanmugham on Tuesday said that a faction of the party has decided to extend support to Vijay.Shanmugham claimed he had the support of 30 MLAs, while EPS was backed by about 20-22 MLAs.“We accept the people's mandate. The people's mandate is not for TVK. The mandate is for Chief Minister Vijay. The mandate is for Vijay to become the Chief Minister. We congratulate Chief Minister Vijay, and we extend our support to the TVK government headed by the Chief Minister,” Shanmugham said.He accused Palaniswami of wanting to form the government with the DMK's backing, saying the AIADMK was founded to 'uproot' the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, adding that a decision to collaborate with that very party was not acceptable.Shanmugham elected senior AIADMK leader SP Velumani as the party leader in the legislative assembly, while the other faction declared EPS as the legislature party chief.ALSO READ | Tamil Nadu CM Vijay orders closure of over 700 govt-run TASMAC liquor stores near schools, bus stopsAmid this rift, both the Palaniswami faction and the Shanmugham-led side are claiming to be the original AIADMK.Following Shanmugham's support to TVK, CM Vijay visited the AIADMK MLA's residence in Chennai and met with other party members.Vijay's final numbersWith all the parties that backed him and his own party's numbers, Vijay stood at 120. However, in view of his resignation from Trichy East, TVK leader JCD Prabhar's election as Tamil Nadu assembly Speaker, and HC order restraining TVK MLA Seenivasa Sethupathy from participating in the trust vote over a postal ballot dispute, Vijay's final number is 120-3 = 117.But with the backing of around 30 MLAs from the anti-EPS AIADMK faction, Vijay's numbers stack up well in his favour -- 117+30 = 147.Where team Dravidians stands?Starting with the former ruling party, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), a party which went from power to no power, bagging just 59 seats in the 234-member state assembly.The DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance, which included Congress, VCK, CPI, CPI(M), IUML and DMDK, held a total of 73 seats.ALSO READ | Free electricity, women's safety: Vijay's first actions after taking oath as Tamil Nadu's chief ministerBut with five of the six parties in the alliance breaking away to back TVK, the SPA is left with just two parties -- DMK and DMDK (the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam).DMK has 59 seats, and DMDK has just one, and their total tally is 60.Then comes the EPS faction of AIADMK. Former AIADMK minister OS Manian claimed that 26 lawmakers backed Palaniswami. However, Shanmugham claimed he had the backing of around 30 MLAs, leaving the EPS faction with about 17 MLAs.ALSO READ | AIADMK's anti-defection law warning as MPs back Vijay: Inside Tamil Nadu floor test. 5 pointsThe previous alliance partners, under the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), were AIADMK, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), and the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMKMNKZ).AIADMK, the EPS faction, likely have around 17 MLAs. The PMK won four seats in the elections, and both the BJP and AMMKMNKZ secured one seat each. This adds up to 23.Team Dravidians final tallyDMK (59) + DMDK (1) + AIADMK (EPS faction) (17) = 77.While the BJP, PMK, and the AMMKMNKZ do not consider themselves a Dravidian party, they haven't announced any support for Vijay either. It is also not clear whether any of these parties would vote for Vijay.Therefore, if we count the tally for parties that have not explicitly declared support for Vijay, then the final number would be: 77+23 = 100.Vijay's floor testThe floor test and confidence motion would take place in the Tamil Nadu legislative assembly shortly.Team Vijay (147) vs Non-Vijay supporting team (100).