A war in the Middle East wasn't what Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney had in mind when he proposed a world of middle powers joining together against aggressive military juggernauts. However, the Persian Gulf is now a prime example of the need for this theory and the obstacles it faces.
Saudi Arabia, in particular, is trying to navigate a conflict it didn't choose and can't control. The kingdom has a clear interest in preventing the war's further escalation, but it's also aware that Iran would respond to any attacks on its energy and water desalination infrastructure by destroying those of the Gulf states.
Riyadh can't afford to lose its oil exports, which supply its budget and the global energy market. However, it also can't afford an unstable ceasefire that leaves a wounded, yet still dangerous, Iranian regime in power. The Islamic Republic that would create would be more militarized, more consolidated, and more motivated to build a nuclear weapon.
Saudi Arabia wants a strong permanent settlement, but it's not clear why resuming and escalating the conflict would deliver on regime change when it has failed to do so until now. The war was a gamble made by Donald Trump, with other people's money and other nations' security and economies for stakes.
The smartest thing Trump can do is start listening to what the Saudis have to say about how best to escape his ill-advised war with the least possible damage. Saudi Arabia is seeking US help to end the war without losing control, and it's not clear why the US wouldn't listen to its allies.
