The Iran conflict is sending shockwaves through energy markets, but a regime change could unlock the country's vast oil reserves and reshape global energy markets.
Brent crude surged past $100 a barrel before falling back in volatile trading as the conflict paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage between Iran and Oman that a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows through.
Iran's oil industry has been strangled by international sanctions, starving it of most foreign investment and technology. If that persists, it would likely lead to an eventual collapse in production.
However, if the regime changes, it could see a rapid return of Iranian barrels, with Rystad expecting output to increase by over 10% by the end of 2027.
A production boost could shave $5 to $10 a barrel off the price of Brent, and a long-term solution to peace in the Middle East could bring the oil price down.
