Ceasefire declarations have added to the uncertainty rather than resolved the issue of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The reality is that the strait was never closed, but ships are being deterred due to the risk of attacks and credible threats from Iran.
Until that risk changes, ships will not return in meaningful numbers. To turn this around, both walking and talking are needed. The international community should move quickly to establish a credible reassurance effort, including limited naval escorts and a broader international presence to provide surveillance, information-sharing and rapid response capability.
A clear, coordinated messaging from the international community, backed by explicit economic consequences for any renewed attacks on merchant shipping, will be essential to rebuilding confidence. The question of tolls also remains, with the legal position clear: the Strait of Hormuz is an international strait under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and ships enjoy the right of transit passage.
Shipping will return to the Strait of Hormuz not when it is declared open, but when it is assessed to be safe enough. That will require a sustained period without attacks, a visible international effort to secure the waterway, and clear signalling that the rules governing international straits will be upheld.
