Canada's Liberal Government on Thin Ice as Budget Vote Looms: Will Christmas Elections Follow?

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In a high-stakes showdown, Canada's minority Liberal government will face a crucial budget vote in the House of Commons on Monday. The outcome is far from certain, with the opposition Conservative Party and Bloc Quebecois likely to reject the budget. A defeat would trigger a snap election, raising the possibility of a Christmas election. Despite their minority status, the Liberals have maintained a narrow lead in national polls, but a Christmas election could still be a risk. In preparation for the vote, Chief Government Whip Mark Gerretsen has emphasized that the party is ready for an election, having been prepared since the last one in April. The Liberal government has been bolstered by the recent defection of a Conservative MP, but the Conservatives remain a force to be reckoned with. The New Democratic Party (NDP), with seven MPs, may hold the key to the government's survival, as some of its members may abstain from the vote. Prime Minister Mark Carney's international travel plans, including a visit to the G20 leaders' summit in South Africa, may be put on hold if an election is triggered. Even if an election is avoided on Monday, midterm polls are likely next year, given the typical lifespan of a minority government in Canada is around 18 months.