The ongoing Iran war is causing a ripple effect on global supply chains, affecting commodities beyond oil and gas.
The Strait of Hormuz, a 54-kilometre-wide channel alongside Iran, is a critical chokepoint for the global supply of oil, gas, and other essential commodities.
As drones hit plants and the Hormuz blockade strands exports, crucial supply chains are experiencing an almighty crunch, impacting industries such as transportation, manufacturing, and food production.
The near-disappearance of Gulf crude has caused Asian refiners acute problems, with alternative supplies being lighter and lower in sulphur than their plants were built to process.
Gulf refineries, among the world's largest, have barely shipped anything since late February, exacerbating the crisis.
The double whammy has alarmed China into suspending all refined-product exports, turbocharging prices of petrol, diesel, and jet fuel in Singapore, Asia's oil-trading hub.
Europe is feeling the squeeze too, with many poorer places already closing schools, shortening working weeks, and rationing fuel.
The crunch will get worse before it gets better, with modelling suggesting that if Hormuz stays blocked, Oceania will have burned through 80% of its jet-fuel stocks within 36 days.
Manufacturing is the second industry under severe strain, due to its reliance on the Gulf's petrochemical plants, which are largely unable to export their wares.
The active compounds in most drugs, from aspirin to antibiotics, also require petrochemicals, with China and India being exposed.
The Gulf supplies 26% of the world's industrial diamonds, 26% of its glycol, and 30% of its methanol, all essential for various industries.
Aluminium, used for packaging, transport, power grids, and renewable energy, is also in short supply, with the price on the London Metal Exchange up by $300 to $3,440 a tonne.
Distress is greatest in the regions most dependent on Gulf supplies, including Europe and America, where delivery premiums have hit records.
The crunch has even made slab, an intermediate product, dearer than hot-rolled coil, the finished stuff.
Helium, essential for cooling semiconductor chips, is also in short supply, with Qatar producing 17 metric tonnes of helium per day, roughly a third of global supply.
Even more ominous is the threat to global food production, with the United Nations estimating that a third of global seaborne fertiliser trade passes through the Hormuz.
Roughly two-thirds of this is urea, often produced from natural gas, with prices already moving sharply.
Urea is up by 35% since the start of the war, with the fertiliser already expensive to start with.
Sulphur, another plant nutrient, is also in short supply, with prices rising by 40% since late February.
A prolonged Hormuz closure would be 'catastrophic' for food supply, with farmers facing painful choices: pay sharply higher prices, reduce application rates, or plant less corn and wheat.
