Oil prices may hit a record $200 a barrel if the Iran war drags on till June, with the Strait of Hormuz staying shut, Macquarie Group Ltd. said.
A conflict that stretches through the second quarter would result in historically high real prices, analysts, including Vikas Dwivedi, said in a note, outlining a scenario with odds of 40%.
Brent crude is on pace for a record monthly gain in March, as the war between the US, Israel and Iran has rocked the oil-rich Middle East.
The conflict has seen Tehran oversee a near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, severely restricting flows of energy vital to the global economy.
Brent was last near $108 a barrel on Friday, after touching a crisis-high of $119.50 earlier this month.
The benchmark set a nominal peak of $147.50 a barrel in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
