22.6 Million Preventable Deaths Loom for LMICs as Development Aid Cuts Deepen

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A stark warning has been issued by researchers at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, with a study published in The Lancet Global Health journal predicting up to 22.6 million preventable deaths in Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) by 2030. This alarming figure includes 5.4 million children under the age of five. The researchers attribute this projected increase in mortality to the significant cuts in humanitarian and development aid from high-income nations, which made up 70% of the over $250 billion in 'official development assistance' in 2023. Notably, 2024 marked the first time in nearly three decades that major donors, except Japan, reduced their contributions, with further cuts planned for 2025. Preliminary projections indicate a substantial decline of over 11% in funding from major donor countries from 2025 to 2026. The study highlights that higher levels of funding are associated with a 23% reduction in all-cause mortality and a 39% reduction in mortality among children under five. The researchers emphasize that funding from high-income countries has played a crucial role in reducing preventable mortality in LMICs over the past two decades. However, the abrupt withdrawal of this support threatens to cause millions of avoidable deaths, reversing decades of progress in global health. The study's authors note that the effects of overall ODA on global mortality and its projections are less understood. They forecast an additional 22.6 million deaths across all ages, including 5.4 million deaths in children younger than five years, by 2030, under a severe defunding scenario. Even under a mild defunding scenario, the projected number of excess deaths by 2030 is 9.4 million across all ages and 2.5 million among children younger than five years. The study's findings suggest that sudden and severe reductions in ODA funding could have catastrophic consequences, with a potential global death toll comparable to or even exceeding that of the COVID-19 pandemic. Even modest defunding that extends current downward trends is likely to lead to sharp increases in preventable adult and child mortality, potentially resulting in tens of millions of excess deaths in the coming years.