COP30 Summit: Climate Finance and Trade Measures Loom Large Amid 1.5°C Ambition

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The upcoming two weeks of COP30 Summit talks in Brazil may see significant discussions on climate finance, trade measures, and the ambitious 1.5°C goal, despite not being part of the official agenda. The Paris Agreement's lower limit, article 9.1, which mandates financial assistance for developing countries, and biannual transparency reports on climate action, are among the key issues. The contentious issue of unilateral trade measures, like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, also looms large. The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) has called for a discussion on the breach of the 1.5°C goal and inadequate Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which was accepted in the Presidency consultations despite not being part of the official agenda. Developing countries, including India, have also sought agenda items on article 9.1 and unilateral trade measures, arguing that without adequate means of implementation, climate action ambition cannot be enhanced. AOSIS members have expressed frustration with the excuses of bigger countries while small island developing states struggle with disproportionate climate change impacts. The proposed new agenda item aims to ensure that COP30 delivers the necessary course correction. The UN has acknowledged that overshooting the 1.5°C goal is now inevitable, but AOSIS sees it as a red line for survival. The European Union has already engaged with global partners on the links between trade, climate, and environmental policies, and argues that creating an additional forum would not add value to existing processes. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and the Regulation on deforestation-free products are designed to pursue legitimate climate and environmental objectives, and do not restrict trade or penalize developing countries. The World Meteorological Organisation has informed world leaders that it is now virtually impossible to prevent an overshoot of the 1.5°C goal. This year is set to be either the second or third warmest year on record, and the US has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement. UN Climate Chief Simon Stiell has emphasized the need to bring temperatures back down to 1.5°C as quickly as possible after any temporary overshoot. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has also acknowledged that efforts to cap global warming at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels will fail in the short term. India has raised concerns about the inadequacy of the finance outcome and has carried this forward to Bonn, demanding an agenda item on Article 9.1. The absence of finance is prominent in its inadequacy across many tracks, including adaptation, mitigation, and the loss and damage fund. A new UN Environment Programme report highlights the growing demand for cooling, which could more than triple by 2050 under business as usual, driven by increases in population and wealth, more extreme heat events, and low-income households gaining access to more polluting and inefficient cooling. This would almost double cooling-related greenhouse gas emissions over 2022 levels, pushing cooling emissions to an estimated 7.2 billion tonnes of CO2e by 2050. UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen has emphasized the need to treat access to cooling as essential infrastructure alongside water, energy, and sanitation, but notes that we cannot air condition our way out of the heat crisis, which would drive greenhouse gas emissions higher and raise costs. Passive, energy-efficient, and nature-based solutions can help meet our growing cooling needs and keep people, food-chains, and economies safe from heat as we pursue global climate goals.