India's Critical Mineral Crisis: A Strategic Threat to Net Zero Emissions Goals
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India's pursuit of net zero emissions by 2070 has exposed a critical vulnerability in its critical minerals sector. A new report by the Centre for Social and Economic Progress warns that limited domestic reserves, high import dependence on China, and an underdeveloped processing sector put India's energy transition at risk. The report, "Partnerships for Self-Reliance: Internationalising India's Critical Minerals Sector," recommends that India prioritize partnerships with the Global South to secure upstream access and co-develop value chains, particularly in Africa and Latin America. This strategy would enable India to link Global North partners' technology and finance with Global South resources. India has made some progress in this area, with operational partnerships with Australia and Japan delivering concrete access to upstream resources and technology. However, most partnerships are nascent or developing, and only a few have translated into operational joint ventures. Critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements are essential for India's clean energy technologies. China's dominance over mining and refining, particularly in rare earth elements, has created a strategic vulnerability for countries pursuing energy transitions. To address this challenge, India has launched the National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM) with a ₹34,300 crore allocation. The mission aims to secure supplies amid China's tightening control over global reserves and processing. The report also highlights the need for better coordination between government agencies and the private sector to strengthen India's domestic value chains. The Centre for Social and Economic Progress warns that India risks over-centralisation through State-led ventures, but leaving the sector entirely to market forces could undermine geoeconomic and security interests. India's policymakers must navigate intense US-China competition over supply chains, while also securing access to geographically concentrated resources. The World Energy Outlook by the International Energy Agency has flagged vulnerabilities in critical minerals due to high levels of market concentration, making it essential for India to prioritize partnerships and diversification. As Anindita Sinh, co-author of the report, notes, "Critical minerals have moved to the forefront of India's strategic agenda. While the country remains import-dependent for several key materials, it is steadily advancing its processing capabilities and strengthening its domestic value chain. The challenge now is to move beyond agreements toward actionable cooperation."
