Kerala Local Body Polls: Minority Vote Consolidation, Anti-Incumbency Propel UDF to Victory
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The United Democratic Front (UDF) has emerged victorious in Kerala's local body polls, securing over 500 gram panchayats, 79 block panchayats, and 54 municipalities. Analysts attribute the UDF's success to minority vote consolidation and soaring anti-incumbency sentiment against the CPI(M)-led government. In central Kerala, the UDF swept local bodies in districts like Kottayam, Pathanamthitta, Idukki, and Ernakulam, where Christians form a significant chunk of the electorate. The coalition also performed well in Malappuram, where the Congress-IUML combine decimated the LDF. Pathanamthitta and Kottayam saw a significant increase in UDF votes, with 64% and 62% of gram panchayats won respectively. In urban areas, the UDF won power in Thrissur, Kochi, and Kollam corporations and retained power in Kannur corporation. It also came close to winning in Kozhikode, winning 26 out of 76 wards. The UDF is set to come to power in 54 of the 87 municipalities, up 13 from last time. Analysts argue that the UDF's minority vote consolidation and anti-incumbency sentiment played a crucial role in its victory. J Prabhash, a former political science professor, said that both Christians and Muslims voted en-masse for the UDF, with Christians in large numbers voting for it in central Kerala. He attributes this to the CPI(M) leadership's refusal to admonish SNDP general secretary Vellappally Natesan for his anti-Muslim remarks. NP Chekkutty, a prominent analyst, said that the Left parties' superior organisational strength was not enough to counter the UDF's minority vote consolidation and anti-incumbency sentiment. He attributed the LDF's defeat to divisions in the social fabric of the state and disenchantment among CPM cadres. The results indicate a deep polarisation in society, with minority voters consolidating behind the UDF and a section of Hindu votes going to the BJP. The CPI(M) is facing a serious crisis, with workers unhappy and a widening gulf between workers and leaders.
