The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral roll in West Bengal has been a topic of discussion in the state's political landscape. However, a deeper analysis of the election results reveals that the shift of Muslim voters away from the Trinamool Congress (TMC) might be a more significant factor in the party's poor performance.
According to data, the number of Muslim MLAs in the West Bengal assembly has remained almost unchanged, but the number of non-TMC, non-BJP Muslim MLAs has increased significantly. This suggests that non-TMC Muslim candidates had a greater appeal to defeat the BJP in 2026.
A broader analysis of fragmentation in Muslim votes and spoiler candidates also supports this conclusion. The number of spoiler candidates fell from 118 in 2021 to 89 in 2026, but the number of Muslim spoiler candidates for the TMC increased from two to 11.
Furthermore, a district-wise comparison of vote share shows that the TMC's vote share decreased in districts with a higher Muslim population share in 2026. This is in contrast to the 2021 elections, where the TMC's vote share increased in districts with a higher Muslim population share.
These numbers suggest that at least some of the Muslims who remained on the electoral roll have moved away from the TMC between 2021 and 2026, picking another non-BJP alternative. The reason for this could not have been SIR and ought to be found in the TMC's politics.
