Rainfall Forecast: India's Northwest to Face Below-Normal Showers, Southern Regions to See Good Rains

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India is bracing for a mixed January-March rainfall forecast, with the northwestern regions of Punjab and Haryana expected to receive below-normal showers. In contrast, southern and central India are likely to witness good rainfall during the same period. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the northwestern parts of the country, which are well-irrigated, will not be significantly impacted by the rainfall forecast. The IMD Director General, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, attributed the mixed forecast to the absence of western disturbances in December, which normally bring rain and thunderstorms to the northwestern and central regions. However, he noted that the absence of snow cover during December to March could be an indicator of good rainfall during the southwest monsoon season. Mohapatra also mentioned that La Nina conditions are prevailing in the equatorial Pacific region, and global forecasting models predict ENSO neutral conditions by March. This could be a positive sign for good monsoon rainfall. The IMD has also reported that 2025 was the eighth-warmest year since 1901, with an all-India annual mean land surface air temperature 0.28 degree Celsius higher than the 1991-2020 long-term average. The mixed rainfall forecast does not seem to have a significant impact on the rabi crop, as the northwestern parts of the country are well-irrigated and have good reservoir levels. However, some regions, including the northeast, parts of Bihar, and Vidarbha, may experience one to three days of additional cold days, while Rajasthan is expected to witness fewer cold days. Overall, the IMD's forecast suggests that India's weather will be characterized by below-normal temperatures in January, with above-normal temperatures expected in some parts of the country.