Bihar Elections: NDA Poised for Victory, But Will Nitish Kumar's Health Become a Concern?

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The Bihar assembly elections are set to conclude with the results announced on Friday, with exit polls indicating a likely win for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). However, the polls were held amidst controversy, with the Opposition protesting the special revision of electoral rolls. The entry of Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj has altered the electoral landscape, with both the NDA and the Grand Alliance (GA) focusing on welfare and development. Despite concerns over Nitish Kumar's health, the GA has failed to make it a significant issue, and voters seem indifferent. A victory for the NDA would consolidate its hold in the Hindi belt, a region where the INDIA bloc and the Congress are weak. If the NDA retains power in Bihar, it would have governments in nine northern states and union territories. In contrast, the Opposition governs in Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Jharkhand. Nitish Kumar is likely to remain chief minister if the NDA wins, but analysts believe the BJP may push for its own chief minister in the next five years. Kumar's popularity remains intact, with ground reports indicating that a large section of the NDA's voters trust him. The NDA's unity in 2025 could result in a strong showing by the JD(U). A loss in Bihar would be a major setback for the Opposition, particularly the Congress, which is struggling in northern states. It would also put pressure on Rahul Gandhi, the Leader of the Opposition, who has faced criticism for the Congress's poor performance. Since 2024, the Congress has lost seven of nine elections, while the INDIA bloc has won only two polls, with the Congress playing a minor supporting role. A failure in Bihar would further erode the Congress's chances of challenging Prime Minister Narendra Modi.