India's population is expected to peak in the next 21 years and then decline sharply, according to demographers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). This forecast is based on a decline in the total fertility rate (TFR), which has fallen to 1.9, below the level needed to keep the population stable in the long run.
The TFR is the number of births a typical woman has over her lifetime, and a rate of 2.15 is needed to keep the population stable. However, India's fertility rate has been declining for 70 years, and experts warn that it is unlikely to reverse.
India's population is expected to reach 1.45 billion by 2023, surpassing China as the world's most populous country. However, the country's fertility rate is falling faster than expected, and experts warn that the population will decline rapidly in the coming decades.
The decline in fertility is attributed to a combination of factors, including a change in the aspirations of modern Indian parents, a waning of the tradition of living in an extended family, and a shift in cultural norms. Many Indian parents are now choosing to have fewer children, with some opting for just one child, in order to afford better education and healthcare for their children.
The decline in fertility has significant implications for India's economy and society. The country's workforce is expected to peak in 2030, and the economy will need to make better use of women, who are currently under-employed. The decline in fertility also raises concerns about the care of the elderly, as the extended family is no longer able to provide support.
Politicians are already casting around for policies to promote baby-making, but experts warn that exhortations and bungs will not work. Fertility seems to be driven by forces too powerful for states or religious leaders to control easily.
