A recent intelligence assessment by America's agencies suggests that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027. However, the ongoing war in the Middle East and its consequences for American politics and military power may increase the risk that Mr Xi takes military action against the island.
Experts warn that the war in the Middle East could weaken America's military presence in the Asia-Pacific, making it more challenging for the US to defend Taiwan. The PLA has been modernizing its capabilities, and the war could give China the opportunity to perfect its amphibious assault techniques.
America's political calendar, including the 2028 presidential elections in Taiwan and the US, could also influence Mr Xi's calculus. A KMT victory in Taiwan or a change in the US administration could lead to a more aggressive approach from China.
While the current assessment suggests that an attack on Taiwan in 2027 is unlikely, the medium-term risk is increasing. The war in the Middle East and the consequences for American power could lead to a more significant threat to Taiwan in the coming years.
