Since 1930, more than 80 countries have participated in 22 World Cup tournaments, but only eight have ever claimed the trophy. What sets these countries apart?
Researchers at The Economist built a simple model based on national teams' Elo ratings, a measure of performance that takes into account the calibre of opponents. They found that wealth, population, height, and geography were the most influential factors, accounting for around 70% of the variation in Elo scores.
However, no single factor is decisive. Rich countries spend more on coaching and facilities, but do not always excel. America is wealthy, but most of the money in American sports flows to other games. The monarchies of the Gulf are filthy rich and football-mad, but still underperform.
Size matters, too. A bigger population offers a deeper talent pool, but it is no guarantee of glory. Despite their billion-plus populations, China and India have qualified for just one World Cup between them. Size counts more literally, too. Our analysis suggests the optimal height for players other than the goalie is around 181cm.
The most powerful variable, however, is one no government can influence: geography and the sporting culture it brings with it. For instance, South American teams average around 640 Elo points more than their Asian counterparts, which means they are expected to beat them more than 90% of the time.
European teams also enjoy an edge, thanks to the depth of coaching and the intensity of competition. European leagues are a magnet for global talent, audiences, and investment. The continent is home to more than 200,000 coaches, far more than any other confederation.
Japan is one of the few countries that have managed to rise up the rankings. It had never reached a World Cup before 1998 but has not missed one since. At the most recent tournament, in Qatar, Japan beat such heavyweights as Germany and Spain.
Japan's success reflects a careful strategy adopted by its football authorities. In 1992, Japan revamped its amateur league and launched a "Hundred Year Vision" with the goal of forming 100 professional clubs by 2092. It has since continuously tweaked this plan, studying global tactical trends and disseminating them at home.
Other countries have taken a different approach. Senegal has climbed up the rankings not by developing football infrastructure at home, but by drawing on a diaspora trained at academies abroad. Around half of the Teranga Lions' squad at the World Cup are sons of Senegalese migrants.
There are other ways to import talent. Countries that are usually stingy with passports sometimes throw them at footballers. Qatar, for instance, fields several naturalised players. China's big star, Serginho, was born in Brazil.
The benefits of migration accrue to both the exporting and importing country. The children of migrants to Europe often end up playing for their parents' adoptive country, not their original one. Spain's biggest star, Lamine Yamal, is the son of immigrants from Morocco and Equatorial Guinea.
Drawing on a more diverse talent pool boosts performance on the pitch. A study found that an increase in a squad's "ancestral diversity" leads to better results. In the deep soul-searching prompted by Italy's failure to qualify for this World Cup, some commentators blamed strict citizenship rules that have prevented many migrants from playing for the Azzurri.
